The Shifting World Economy Centre of Gravity : Is The Decline Of The West Inevitable?
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| Columnist: Daniel, Uzoigwe Chimezie |
The World's political and economic system could be divided
into the West and the East. The West is more or less regarded as the economic
regions of North America, Western Europe and Japan. On the other hand, I would
use the East to represent the economic regions of Asia, India, the Middle East
and Africa. However, the polarization of the globe is not just on geographical
basis, there is a stronger contradistinction. While the Western nations are
highly developed with a high level of inter-dependency, the Eastern nations are
better described as underdeveloped (or to be fair, 'developing') nations with
every attribute characteristic of underdevelopment. Surfeit it to say that
Japan, while geographically situated in the East is better aligned with the
West because of its parity with that region, development-wise.
Many
years of recorded history show that the West has virtually ruled the World through the instrument of colonialism, imperialism and a biased globalization process. Of course, the West gains a lot from this hegemony while
the East picks the crumbs, and this has continued for decades.
But it
was the Ephesian philosopher, Heraclitus who said 'All is flux . . . nothing
stays still.' Recently, it appears there is a noticeable drift in the
configuration of the international system and it threatens to become a major
one with time. It seems power is slowly changing hands in favour of the East.
This change is largely driven by China, India and other emerging economies like
Singapore and Indonesia.
This shift in the international system has attracted a lot
of attention with many appreciating it and others dismissing it. On several
occasions, the 21st century has come to be described as the century of Asia. In
fact, Robert Payne in his 'The Revolt of Asia' insists that 'the major task of
our generation is the understanding of Asia, for Asia represents potentially
the mastery of the World in manpower and resources.
Even
the Western power blocs have come to appreciate this new phenomenon. The United
States Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton was quoted to have said 'some in the
region and some here at home see China's growth as a threat that will lead
either to cold-war style conflict or American decline. . .we reject those
views.' Even students of International Politics can no longer concentrate on
the Western state system to the exclusion of the rest of the World. The new slogan
for the West at the moment seems to be 'ignore the East at your own peril.' For
the East, it is a 'revolution of rising expectations.’
Evidence
of the shifting balance in the global landscape abound. Recent events show that
the World is moving beyond the times of Western dominance. The West has become
easily prone to economic crises and bubbles with which it infects the rest of
the World. In the last three global economic downturns, China has driven global
economic recovery by providing a growth boost to the World economy multiple
times what the West failed to do. At the latter part of 2010, China overtook
Japan as the World's second largest economy. Analysts predict that if China
maintains a steady growth path, it may overtake the US in ten years' time.
Professor
Danny Quah of the London School of Economics (LSE) speaks of 'The Great Shift
East.' Building on calculations (by Jean-Marie Grether and Nicole Mathys),
Prof. Quah asserts that 'the flat-World map animates the World's economy centre
of gravity and that the rise of China and India since the early 1980s has
shifted the World's economy centre of gravity 1800 km 1/3 of the planet's radius- deeper into the
Earth crust, away from the US, and towards the East. The transition accelerated
in 1991 and 2001, each time the US was in
recession.'(http://dq6bn.blogspot.com/2009/05). He concludes that the World's
economy centre of gravity has really shifted in favour of the East.
The
so-called shift in the global economy centre of gravity is not a mirage. Already,
China and India are becoming more entrenched in many economies around the
World. These two Countries are fast rising in technological and nuclear
prowess. Some accounts show that China already consumes half the World's output
of refined aluminium , coal , and zinc; and uses twice the quantity of crude
steel as does the EU, the US, and Japan combined. According to Prof. Quah in an
article 'Global Governance: the Great Shift East', 'in the last 30 years, China
has lifted over 600 million people from extreme poverty: this is double the
population of the US or the EU, ten times the population of the UK . . . a
large and rapid improvement in the well-being of humanity unprecedented in the
history of this Planet.'
With
these facts, it appears that while the Western system will not collapse, it
will however decline. Civilizations rise and fall only to stabilize again. This
may be the case of the West led by US. Professor of Economics, Jeffrey D. Sachs
in his article, 'A World of Regions' asserts that 'recent events in the Middle
East and Central Asia . . . clearly reflect the decline of US influence and
that America's failure to win any lasting geopolitical advantage through the
use of military force in Iraq and Afghanistan underscore the limits of its powers.'
America's budget crisis would ensure that it takes measures to limit its
international commitments especially militarily. The limited commitment of the
US in the ongoing NATO campaign in Libya is a case in point. At the same time,
it is obvious that the US played little or no role in the political upheavals
in the Arab World of Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia etc. and according to Prof. Sachs, '
and still has not demonstrated any clear policy response to them.' The Euro zone
itself has come to be continually associated with series of intractable crises.
These are all traits of a declining West and does not speak well of the Western
hegemony.
To save
themselves, the US and other Western nations may have no other option than to
cut aid to developing nations. However, this may only end up exacerbating the
Western decline as other regions of the World would respond by exploiting the
benefits of integration. They would have no choice but to rally round
themselves to secure their own future just as the EU did. Already, Africa is
proposing an African Economic Community (AEC) by 2025. Africa holds a lot of
promises and just needs focused and purposeful leaders to make its voice heard
in the new international system. At the
same time, the push for Arab economic unity will be heightened. In the Middle
East, I hold the view that the US/Israel alliance would soon experience a major
crack as Israel cannot continue to fight its neighbours. The Middle East
Countries including Israel may soon get weary of conflicts and seek integration,
which will be value-enhancing for the region. These efforts at integration will
greatly accentuate the Western decline.
China
and the whole of Asia (particularly, East Asia) will be the greatest
beneficiaries of integration and greater regionalism. It would be expected that
Asia led by China will rise to play a more active role in World politics, a
role more commensurate with its size and population, and its potential might.
Recently, in a key note address at the London School of Economics (LSE) China
Development Forum 2011, Ambassador Lui Xiaoming, actually recognized the belief
by many that China is ' hiding its capabilities and bidding its time' before
pressing forward to dominate the Asian region and ultimately thef recorded
history show that the West has virtually ruled the World. Through the
instrumentality of colonialism, imperialism, capitalism and globalization, the
West has ensured that it remained entrenched in weaker nations and indirectly
controlling the socio-political and economic dynamics of World. China's ability to maintain a steady
growth path will see the World's fastest rising power to seek hegemony since
this is the only reliable way to sustain its long run national interest; and
since it is more or less a zero sum game in the global political and economic
landscape, the rise of the East would mean a decline of the West.
The East has not yet arrived. It still has a great distance
to trek. No doubt, the West may continue to dominate the World for more
decades, but there is no doubt that the bargaining power of the East is rising
astronomically.
However,
Humanity must be careful not to devastate the World further by pushing the East
and the West into confrontation. No one says that the pursuit of national
interest is evil (after all, charity, they say begins at home) but all regions
of the World should co-operate effectively to bridge the gap between the
developed World and the developing World. It is our collective duty to work
towards a more prosperous, peaceful and even World where more people will have
access to a more quality life. With this, the question of whether the East
beats West or the West beats East would not arise.
Note: The Author depended largely on Professor Danny Quah's analysis in his epic East beats West lecture at the London school of Economics (LSE)
Uzoigwe, Chimezie Daniel is an Author and Social Commentator. A final Year Student of the University of Benin. E-mail: Uzoigwechimezie92@yahoo.com. 08179741950
