Rebasing: Nigeria's Economy Set To Overtake South-Africa's In Two Years

Nigeria is likely to take South Africa’s position as the continent’s largest economy within two years, a Reuters poll found on Thursday. Nigeria’s gross domestic product will receive an enormous boost when it is rebased later this year to more accurately reflect changes in the economy over the last two decades. The GDP base in use is from 1990 and fails to capture the technology and telecoms sectors which have emerged since then. The much-delayed rebasing could add up to 50% to Nigeria’s economy, giving it a nominal GDP of around $375bn which is almost the size of South Africa’s.

Strong domestic demand and high levels of agriculture and services activity will see it clinch the title of Africa’s biggest economy within a couple years if current growth rates are maintained. High unemployment and a slowdown in the euro zone, South Africa’s main trading partner, make it vulnerable to losing its number one spot. It is set to grow at just 2.6% this year. It must be noted, however, that while being number one in the continent may boost Nigeria’s profile, South Africa still enjoys a better GDP-per-capita ratio compared to Nigeria, and therefore a slightly better standard of living.