Rebased GDP figures expected in December as NBS changes GDP base year to 2010
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| Dr. Yemi Kale, Statistician-General of the Federation |
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is updating its GDP base year to 2010 to give a better indication of the size and composition of its economy. Nigeria’s GDP is currently based on production patterns of 1990. The data are now slated for publication on December 10, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.
Yemi Kale, head of the NBS, said earlier in the year in a visit to BusinessDay that the latest personal consumption figures for Nigeria were larger than the current estimated GDP of $272 billion (N42.9trn). This means that GDP will be much larger when rebased figures come out later in the year.
Household consumption expenditure (HCE), the largest component of GDP by expenditure, was equivalent to 61 percent of GDP in 2011, according to NBS data.
“The rebased GDP will show that the services sector is also much bigger, while agriculture as a percentage of GDP will be much less than the current 40 percent,” Kale said then.
The updated GDP data will probably boost the size of the Nigerian economy by 35 percent, according to him. “It is ongoing; we were a little bit more ambitious than realistic. However, we can meet the target date subject to budget releases. We are not eager to just put out any number; we want to get it right the first time,” he said.
The statistics office has postponed the release of the data at least twice before, citing funding constraints.
About 60 – 70 percent of the work relating to the rebasing has been done. The remaining areas yet to be computed include non-profit organisations, construction, hotels, and the mining industry, BusinessDay learns.
The NBS plans to expand the various sectors of the nation’s economy from which data are gathered to compute GDP to 60 from the current 30, Kale said. The NBS is seeking to change the calculations of Nigeria’s GDP using a new base year of 2010. Most governments overhaul GDP calculations every few years to reflect changes in output and consumption, such as telecoms, financial services and internet usage.
Nigeria has not done so since 1990 (about 22 years) suggesting that the previous GDP framework underestimated economic activity.
Kale also hinted that the economy was not as bad as was generally reported. Nigeria’s economy is forecast to expand 6.5 percent this year, according to data from the 2013 national budget.
“The economic growth is real, however, the quality of that growth is questionable and concentrated in a few sectors,” he said.
- BusinessDay
